College football signing date usually breaks down into thirds.


Wednesday’s National Signing Day, especially for college football fans, is a day to celebrate and dream about what could be.

College Hall of Fame Coach Barry Alvarez, a former colleague, used to say that football signees could be broken down into thirds.


·        Whatever the class size, about one-in-three players would be as advertised and contribute as starters or special teamers.

·        No matter the “stars” assigned by supposed experts, about one-in-three players would play beyond projections and set school records, be NFL prospects, earn All-American honors and be the major contributors on bowl teams.

·        Despite what your personal evaluations suggest, about one-in-three players will never play be it ability, injury, interest or other factors.

The formula does have wiggle room. Nothing is an absolute in this business.

Since the percentages seldom run perfectly true to form, a couple more star players than busts would lead to a few more wins. If the formula tilted the other way, it would be tough sledding to make post-season play.

There aren’t too many more thoroughly covered and discussed topics than college football recruiting each year. Try to keep it in perspective, however. What you think you know this week will have a much different look four years from now.

Just count on the breakdown being somewhere along the lines of 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3.

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